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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty - Advanced Topics |
Yaari's Dual Theory |
The dual theory, developed by Menahem Yaari, shifts the focus of a utility function for choices under uncertainty to being linear in probabilities and non-linear in payoffs -- as is expected utility -- to being non-linear in probabilities and linear in payoffs. The aim was to explain behavioral traits that are at odds with expected utility theory, and at this, it succeeds. However, it does create a number of anomalies of its own that are not present in expected utility, and in fact are the exact reverse. It remains important, though, as a vital step in the development of theories of choice under uncertainty that are tractable, have straightforward applications, and none of the behavioral irregularities of standard expected utility theory. |
Probability Representation |
To begin with, Yaari defines a decumulative distribution function (DDF) of a random variable v, representing a lottery, as: |
The Axioms |
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The representation theorem |
A preference relation satisfies axioms 1-5 if & only if there exists a continuous & nondecreasing real function f, defined on the unit interval, such that for all u & v: |
References |
Yaari, M. (1987) "The Dual Theory of Choice Under Risk." Econometrica. vol. 55 no. 1, pg 95-115. |
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Page source: http://www.econport.org/econport/request?page=man_ru_advanced_dual
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